Čistá a celková volební volatilita v Česku v letech 1990–2010: stejný koncept, odlišná měření a podobné závěry?
Lukáš Linek
Net and gross electoral volatility in the Czech Republic between 1990–2010: The same concept, different measurements and similar conclusions?The aim of the paper is to analyze electoral volatility in the Czech Republic during the years 1990-2013; and to evaluate whether during that period electoral volatility decreased, increased or was stable. The paper distinguishes between net and overall/gross volatility. The first one uses aggregate level data from the electoral results and measures the changes in the support of the political parties in consecutive elections. The second one uses individual level data from post-election surveys and measures the overall party switching between political parties. This division allows to compare both types of electoral volatility and to evaluate their biases. Moreover, the study decomposes the electoral volatility into within-system and extra-system volatility and into block and within-block volatility. Whereas electoral volatility had been decreasing since the middle of 90’s, the 2010 and 2013 elections marked a significant increase in electoral volatility. This volatility stemmed from the support for new parties and party switching within the blocks of left-wing and nonleft-wing parties.
