Vliv volební účasti na zisky politických stran ve volbách do Poslanecké sněmovny
Lukáš Linek
The Influence of the Voter Turnout on Election Results in the National Elections in the Czech RepublicThis paper analyses the partisan effect of turnout in the national elections in the Czech Republic in 2006 and 2010. The study utilizes the conventional (compositional) model and two-step defection model as the frameworks for the analysis. The analysis uses individual level data. After introduction of the main individual-level research strategies, it uses three ways of analysing partisan effects of turnout based on Highton-Wolfinger (2001), McAllister-Mughan (1986) and Pettersena-Rose (2007). The results show that higher turnout is advantageous for the parties whose voters lack strong party identification (ČSSD, Green Party, Public Affairs). On the other hand, it brings lower gains to parties with disciplined electorate (especially ODS, but also KDU-ČSL and KSČM). Generally, the partisan effects are context dependent and the main drivers of it seem to be (1.) social inequalities in turnout and party choice, and (2.) the intensity of party identification.
